How is the UK doing? It is a question that is hard to answer. On the one hand, the UK remains one of the richest countries in the world and has enjoyed a prolonged period of peace and prosperity. On the other hand, household incomes have stagnated over the last 15 years and many already-creaking public services are groaning under the weight of an ageing and sickening population.
And yet, commentators and politicians regularly purport to set out the definitive condition of Britain – especially so during an election year such as 2024. Different measures are proffered as indicators of success – or lack of it – with GDP growth, NHS waiting times, crime statistics, and school exam results being among the most cited. Illuminating though such measures tend to be, the ultimate answer to the question will almost certainly depend on who is responding.
In fact, the simplest way to understand how the country is doing is to ask its people how they are doing. And happily, that is something that has been happening for more than a decade. Since 2011, the Office for National Statistics has systematically been asking the nation’s citizens to report on how they are feeling and functioning, incorporating simple standardised questions into a wide range of its key national surveys. As a result, there is now a rich suite of data that allows the mood of the nation to be tracked over time.
At the headline level then, the answer to the question “how is the UK doing?” is “about 7.5 out of 10”. It is a response which is a little underwhelming – and perhaps goes some way to explaining why it is a figure that was conspicuously absent from the General Election debate (along with the suspicion with which statistics described as measuring ‘wellbeing’ are sometimes treated by those who cannot help but picture mindfulness exercises and yoga retreats). And it is more underwhelming still when set against the historical trend: 7.5 when the series started in 2012, rising to a high of 7.7 in 2019 before falling back to a low of 7.5 when the pandemic struck. The truth is the population average does not move all that much.
The drivers of low wellbeing
But lift the bonnet, and the wellbeing data does carry significant power. For policymakers, and indeed anyone who cares about the state of the nation, it has two particularly important applications.
First, it provides a picture of who in the country is facing the most significant challenges in their lives, and how that is changing over time. Simply put, looking at the distribution of life satisfaction scores reveals who is living below the wellbeing ‘poverty line’. Other measures such as household income and spending provide their own important insights, but the wellbeing data spotlights those people who are enduring a life below a minimum wellbeing threshold irrespective of what complex combination of factors may have pushed them there.
Second, the detailed wellbeing data allows an exploration of what triggers and drives wellbeing improvements and deteriorations. What effect does a change in income have for different parts of the population? How great a role does family and community connection have in supporting an individual’s resilience? How does the impact of a policy change play out across different demographic groups?
It is with these two applications in mind that Pro Bono Economics (PBE) is releasing its first Low wellbeing in the UK annual report.
It shows that 3.2 million adults are currently living below the wellbeing poverty line – scoring four or less out of 10 when asked to grade their satisfaction with their life. It is equivalent to 5.7% of all those aged 16 and over across the UK, or the combined populations of Manchester and Liverpool.
Aspirations
It is a number that is too high, but it is one that has been heading in the wrong direction too. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the pandemic prompted a spike in low wellbeing, with the proportion of adults in this position jumping from a low of 4.4% in 2018 to 5.7% in 2020. Yet, following a modest recovery in 2021, the proportion has drifted back upwards. There may be an element of noise in the year-on-year movements, but there is little to suggest that low wellbeing is set to fall back to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.
Indeed, allowing for some population growth, the number of adults below the threshold in 2023 was 135,000 higher than recorded in 2022, and 780,000 higher than had been the case in 2018. It is the highest recorded since comparable data was first collected in 2012.
PBE believes that the government needs to establish a credible plan to reduce “wellbeing poverty” in the UK. But what should the ambition be? In a country of the UK’s wealth and resource, PBE believes it should be one of eradication: that no one need endure spending a sustained period feeling so dissatisfied with their life. Getting there may not be easy or speedy, but it is a valuable aspiration. In fact, using HM Treasury’s own methodology, PBE estimates that even going halfway to this target – that is, halving the number of adults living below the wellbeing poverty line – would generate benefits of some £54 billion a year. For context, that is around twice the economic benefits every year than were expected to be delivered through the Crossrail scheme in its first 30 years of existence.
To get there, it is important that the UK learns lessons from other countries, specifically those such as Finland and New Zealand that convert similar levels of national income into higher levels of happiness. But diving into the wellbeing data available can also provide valuable lessons.
Looking first at who suffers from low wellbeing, PBE’s analysis shows that people of mixed ethnic backgrounds are nearly twice as likely to fall below the threshold as those of white background. Meanwhile, women are a little more likely than men to experience low wellbeing. And those in the poorest quarter of households are more than twice as likely to experience low wellbeing as those in the richest quarter of households.
But these simple prevalences mask a multitude of interactions that affect rates across different groups. Multivariate analysis that isolates the impact of different factors on low wellbeing risk shows three clear themes of mind, body, and connection.
For example, where someone’s mental health affects their life “all of the time” their likelihood of experiencing low wellbeing rises by 16 percentage points relative to someone who suffers no mental health effects. Similarly, someone self-reporting “poor” general health has an 9 percentage point higher risk of enduring low wellbeing than someone self-reporting good health. And someone who describes themselves as “often” feeling lonely is 13 percentage points more likely to fall below the low wellbeing threshold than someone who is never lonely.
Other smaller but important effects are identified when risk factors are isolated in this way. For example, being of Caribbean or African ethnicity raises the probability of being below the wellbeing poverty line, even when other economic, social, and demographic factors are controlled for. Likewise, there is a specific risk factor associated with living in the private rented sector. In contrast, those living in the social rented sector appear to enjoy some protection against low wellbeing even though in raw terms the prevalence of low wellbeing is higher for those living in such accommodation.
Low wellbeing is perhaps hardest to endure for those for whom it persists over time. Among those falling below the low wellbeing threshold, 55% appear to ‘escape’ within four years. But 45% either ‘churn’ in and out of low wellbeing or – worse still – remain ‘stuck’ in this position in every subsequent year. Looking across the entire adult population, this means that 3.1% of people fall into low wellbeing and fail to permanently escape within four years. Likewise, around 1%, roughly the entire population of Bradford, find themselves in low wellbeing for at least four consecutive years.
There is some clear read across from a number of the low wellbeing drivers identified to the policy priority areas set out by the new Labour government under its five ‘missions’. Clearly the details that sit within the administration’s focus on the NHS, on building social housing, on tackling economic inactivity connected to long-term illness, and on supporting private renters will be of considerable importance, and further exploration of the wellbeing data should make a valuable contribution to shaping those details in the coming months.
Loneliness and low wellbeing
But there are apparent policy blind spots too, not least in relation to loneliness. PBE’s deep dive on this key driver of low wellbeing suggests that there are 5 million adults in the UK struggling with chronic loneliness, with disproportional representation among those aged under 30, women, those who are separated from their partners, the unemployed, and those reporting poor health.
It is a challenge that comes with a significant fiscal cost too. PBE estimates that ending chronic loneliness in the UK could reduce the need for almost a million GP appointments a year and around 100,000 in-patient episodes in hospitals.
But consultation with experts working in loneliness suggests ending chronic loneliness requires a significant escalation in action. This includes refreshing and strengthening the policy framework by publishing an update to the 2018 Loneliness Strategy; increasing collaboration with philanthropic funding to expand financial support for organisations tackling loneliness; and supporting social sector organisations to better measure and demonstrate their impact.
On this issue and many others, the public, private, and social sectors should work together in pursuit of a common interest in improving the wellbeing of the country, and the life experiences of those facing the most significant challenges in particular. And the three sectors should do so armed with the unique insights that the nation’s increasingly rich suite of wellbeing data offers.
PBE hopes to make its own contribution to this important effort over the coming months and years, starting with this first state of the nation note on low wellbeing in the UK. PBE’s hope is that, in future editions of the report, when the question is posed “how is the UK doing?”, the answer can be: “better”.